Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd15d…7832 weather 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$73 (-13%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 51% −$83
sports 41% +$6
other 7% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -10.2% -18.7% 63% 47% -22.6%
≤30d 19 -10.2% -18.7% 63% 47% -22.6%
≤90d 19 -10.2% -18.7% 63% 47% -22.6%
all 19 -10.2% -18.7% 63% 47% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 47% -22.6%
10% -26.5% 5% -30.0%
15% -33.6% 5% -36.8%
20% -40.1% 0% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)19 / 25
History coverage5d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Yes 35¢ 37¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? Yes 28¢ 25¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? Yes 23¢ 25¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $102 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $27 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $103 −$84 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +20%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +36%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 +$2 +11%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -77%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +18%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $3 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? SELL Yes $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? SELL Yes $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? SELL Yes 57¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 100¢ $5 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $5 20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 21h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $26 25h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 13¢ $15 25h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 31¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $8 27h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $0 27h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 81¢ $89 27h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.17 · official $17.17 (match) · 72 history records