Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:31:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D1 0xd15a…80db crypto 268 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d only
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18,676 (-77%) realized −$18,676 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate43%236W / 309L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day84.5pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13,062
7 days−$13,017
14 days−$12,985
30 days−$13,251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$1,290
crypto 28% −$32
sports 22% +$78
finance 1% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-53.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 377 -69.2% -72.2% 25% 3% -85.6%
≤30d 541 -48.6% -53.5% 43% 2% -50.4%
≤90d 545 -48.4% -53.3% 43% 3% -44.6%
all 545 -48.4% -53.3% 43% 3% -44.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.3% 3% -44.6%
10% ← realistic here -57.8% 1% -49.9%
15% -61.8% 1% -54.7%
20% -65.6% 1% -59.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -94% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$49 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18,676
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses236 / 309
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)545 / 268
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$90
Trades / day84.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 545 Trades
no open positions (285 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kings vs. Celtics Jun 30 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2PM ET Jun 30 $2 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2AM ET Jun 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4PM ET Jun 30 $2 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10PM ET Jun 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10PM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10PM ET Jun 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1PM ET Jun 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11AM ET Jun 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Rockets vs. Kings Jun 30 $258 −$258 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11AM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12AM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4AM ET Jun 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Warriors vs. Jazz Jun 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Nuggets vs. Celtics Jun 30 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8PM ET Jun 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Jun 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7AM ET Jun 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Jun 30 $336 −$336 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Jun 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6AM ET Jun 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4PM ET Jun 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10AM ET Jun 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records