Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:07:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D1 0xd156…8569 sports 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$190 (+4%) realized +$176 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate61%86W / 54L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$284
14 days−$284
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$279
crypto 33% −$176
other 18% +$17
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -13.9% -22.1% 48% 47% -22.3%
≤30d 131 +0.5% -9.1% 61% 59% -8.8%
≤90d 140 +1.3% -8.3% 61% 59% -7.2%
all 140 +1.3% -8.3% 61% 59% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 59% -7.2%
10% -17.1% 50% -16.1%
15% -25.1% 32% -24.2%
20% -32.5% 16% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$18 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$176
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses86 / 54
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)140 / 142
History coverage31d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? No 75¢ 86¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+15%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 95¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $30 +$6 +21%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $60 +$22 +36%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 +$29 +95%
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Spark (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Jun 25 $30 +$8 +27%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu Jun 25 $30 +$3 +10%
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 25 $30 +$11 +36%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $25 +$9 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$13 -50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$7 +24%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$18 -70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $106 −$36 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$7 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$25 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$17 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$8 +31%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Jun 24 $25 −$18 -70%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $25 −$1 -5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$11 +42%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$6 +21%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $25 +$6 +24%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 24 $30 +$9 +29%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $25 −$12 -48%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $25 −$5 -21%
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: R Jun 23 $25 −$12 -49%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$12 +46%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $13 −$8 -60%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $25 −$9 -35%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $25 −$6 -23%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 23 $25 −$6 -25%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo Jun 23 $30 +$6 +19%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $25 +$14 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$12 +46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $25 −$2 -9%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $26 −$21 -81%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $25 +$10 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$9 +36%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro Le Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 73¢ $10 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $37 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $82 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Under 82¢ $30 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 80¢ $30 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $30 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 67¢ $30 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $30 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 95¢ $59 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 48¢ $30 4h
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Spark (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: SELL KRÜ Spark 100¢ $38 5h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu SELL Infinite 100¢ $33 5h
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C SELL FOKUS 100¢ $41 5h
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Spark (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: BUY KRÜ Spark 78¢ $30 6h
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY FOKUS 73¢ $30 6h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu BUY Infinite 91¢ $30 6h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $35 7h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 72¢ $25 9h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 72¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $13 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 100¢ $45 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 66¢ $30 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $8 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 13¢ $6 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 55¢ $25 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 55¢ $35 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.79 · official $78.79 (match) · 317 history records