Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:31:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd154…6aa1 crypto 540 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16,750 (-47%) realized −$16,750 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate66%358W / 182L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 99d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,663
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 228 -11.7% -20.1% 63% 52% -0.8%
≤30d 312 -14.1% -22.3% 61% 47% -14.4%
≤90d 464 -12.0% -20.4% 64% 46% -16.2%
all 540 -11.0% -19.4% 66% 44% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 44% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 28% -24.3%
15% -34.2% 16% -31.7%
20% -40.6% 9% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$45 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16,750
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses358 / 182
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)540 / 540
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$66
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 540 Trades
no open positions (71 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $87 +$13 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$3 +148%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $73 +$27 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $49 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $34 +$16 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$14 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $240 +$20 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$17 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $43 −$42 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 21 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$2 -62%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $96 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 21 $207 +$60 +29%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $103 −$59 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $70 +$30 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $53 +$16 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $42 +$7 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $150 +$36 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$25 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $38 +$6 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 21 $24 +$6 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $22 +$8 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $14 +$4 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $14 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $104 +$56 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$4 -13%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $24 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $81 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $54 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $13 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $14 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $6 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records