Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:26:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D1 0xd14f…0014 crypto 1791 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-1%) realized −$113 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%977W / 848L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day71.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days−$96
14 days+$18
30 days−$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$80
weather 10% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 -53.6% -58.1% 9% 9% -58.1%
≤30d 1600 -8.8% -17.5% 52% 51% -14.1%
≤90d 1825 -6.7% -15.6% 54% 53% -13.1%
all 1825 -6.7% -15.6% 54% 53% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 53% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 50% -21.4%
15% -31.1% 45% -29.0%
20% -37.8% 32% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses977 / 848
Open positions22
Markets (closed)1825 / 1791
History coverage33d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day71.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 1825 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+83%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 15? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 15? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 15? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-39%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 43m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 10h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.63 · official $7.63 (match) · 3500 history records