Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:49:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
D1 0xd14e…0993 crypto 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$229 (+27%) realized +$232 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$186
7 days−$144
14 days+$84
30 days+$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$107
other 15% $0
sports 9% +$20
tech 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +7.5% -2.8% 33% 33% -37.5%
≤30d 32 +19.6% +8.2% 47% 44% +6.2%
≤90d 32 +19.6% +8.2% 47% 44% +6.2%
all 32 +19.6% +8.2% 47% 44% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.2% 44% +6.2%
10% -2.2% 44% -3.9%
15% -11.6% 44% -13.2%
20% -20.3% 34% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$21 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$232
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)32 / 36
History coverage21d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? No 51¢ 56¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 44¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? Jun 22 $10 −$6 -64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 22 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 22 $54 −$54 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $18 +$27 +146%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $35 −$4 -12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 +$11 +53%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 +$15 +348%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 +$50 +188%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $8 +$18 +236%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $43 −$9 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $16 +$21 +126%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $54 −$38 -70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$248 +496%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$12 +110%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $11 +$4 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $22 +$22 +102%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 05 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $43 +$27 +64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $48 +$23 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY No 51¢ $11 11m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY No 51¢ $16 12m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 13m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY 25¢ $10 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $25 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $18 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 97¢ $19 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 64¢ $14 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? SELL No 36¢ $12 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $21 24h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY No 54¢ $21 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $52 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $16 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 88¢ $26 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? SELL No 12¢ $6 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $11 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 39¢ $21 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? SELL No 32¢ $28 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 21¢ $22 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 95¢ $37 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 37¢ $16 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.31 · official $76.31 · 78 history records