Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:42:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D1 0xd14d…cfb4 world 12 markets active 3h ago coverage 53d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$23 (+8%) realized +$42 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$15
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$100
politics 22% −$50
other 19% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +146.1% +122.7% 100% 100% +122.7%
≤30d 4 -38.5% -44.3% 25% 25% -62.9%
≤90d 9 +14.0% +3.2% 44% 33% -0.7%
all 9 +14.0% +3.2% 44% 33% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.2% 33% -0.7%
10% -6.7% 33% -10.2%
15% -15.7% 33% -18.9%
20% -24.0% 33% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$21 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$42
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage53d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 26¢ 82¢ $10 $31 +$21 (+214%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $70 $30 −$40 (-57%)
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit? Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $10 $0 +2%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 04 $40 +$76 +191%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 04 $10 +$29 +287%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027? Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? Apr 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.61 · official $80.61 (match) · 21 history records