Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:33:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd14c…5fbd sports 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$13,388 (+14%) realized +$14,402 · open −$1,014
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate21%11W / 41L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$1,722per market
Trades / day49.3pace
Fees−$1,533est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$2,354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$759
7 days+$522
14 days+$175
30 days+$13,155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$12,774
other 5% −$603
economics 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +121.3% +100.2% 29% 14% -5.9%
≤30d 52 +37.0% +23.9% 21% 15% +6.0%
≤90d 52 +37.0% +23.9% 21% 15% +6.0%
all 52 +37.0% +23.9% 21% 15% +6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.9% 15% +6.0%
10% +12.1% 15% -4.1%
15% ← realistic here +1.2% 12% -13.4%
20% -8.7% 10% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +46% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,295 vs −$50 · ×26.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.02 per $1 lost it wins $13.02
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$2,354
Realized+$14,402
Unrealized−$1,014
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses11 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,533
Open positions3
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage23d
Avg bet$1,722
Trades / day49.3
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Team Liquid 50¢ 92¢ $1,177 $2,177 +$1,000 (+85%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Deep Cross Gaming 50¢ $1,177 $176 −$1,000 (-85%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Deep Cross Gaming $9 $0 −$8 (-94%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp 51¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 29 $1,944 $0 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $5,716 +$419 +7%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $3,441 +$57 +2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1,185 $0 +0%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $316 +$283 +89%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $110 −$108 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $240 +$110 +46%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $234 −$194 -83%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $119 −$116 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $31 −$30 -95%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$17 -83%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $82 −$50 -61%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$20 -64%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $45 +$136 +303%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2,500 $0 +0%
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jun 13 $12,583 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $103 −$60 -58%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $16,991 +$4,598 +27%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $10 +$115 +1150%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $9,966 +$2,419 +24%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $9 −$9 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $6,976 $0 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $1,853 +$82 +4%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $2,325 −$118 -5%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $9,231 +$6,027 +65%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming $9 13m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming 12¢ $10 28m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 87¢ $485 28m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 87¢ $220 28m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 87¢ $19 28m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 87¢ $4 28m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 87¢ $1 28m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 87¢ $45 28m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 87¢ $1 28m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 87¢ $4 28m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 87¢ $9 28m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 87¢ $30 28m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 83¢ $157 29m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 84¢ $157 29m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 81¢ $14 29m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 85¢ $159 29m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 86¢ $158 29m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 86¢ $157 29m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 32¢ $7 31m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 31¢ $3 31m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 33¢ $3 31m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 30¢ $8 31m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 26¢ $5 31m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 78¢ $635 32m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 80¢ $6 32m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 80¢ $40 32m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 82¢ $161 32m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 80¢ $74 32m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 81¢ $157 32m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 81¢ $30 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,353.55 · official $2,353.55 (match) · 1227 history records