Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:57:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D1 0xd146…9bf0 sports 244 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$27,054 (-12%) realized −$25,902 · open −$1,152
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%70W / 161L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$964per market
Trades / day53.5pace
Fees−$2,576est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$8,027now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7,078
7 days+$5,168
14 days−$1,675
30 days−$20,734
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$13,326
other 39% −$15,246
crypto 1% +$315
world 0% −$1,017
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +46.8% +32.8% 38% 38% +6.7%
≤30d 96 -11.5% -19.9% 27% 26% -35.4%
≤90d 231 -15.5% -23.5% 30% 30% -21.1%
all 231 -15.5% -23.5% 30% 30% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.5% 30% -21.1%
10% -30.9% 30% -28.7%
15% ← realistic here -37.5% 30% -35.6%
20% -43.7% 29% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$1,200) neutral
Persistence
early -24% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,542 vs −$848 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$8,027
Realized−$25,902
Unrealized−$1,152
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses70 / 161
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$2,576
Open positions17
Markets (closed)231 / 244
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$964
Trades / day53.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Under 65¢ 67¢ $1,820 $1,871 +$51 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 56¢ $1,380 $1,695 +$315 (+23%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 37¢ 20¢ $1,840 $1,000 −$840 (-46%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 48¢ $940 $950 +$10 (+1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 28¢ $780 $855 +$75 (+10%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $687 $601 −$86 (-12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $430 $568 +$138 (+32%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ $69 $287 +$218 (+315%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 38¢ $157 $172 +$15 (+10%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 26¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-17%)
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $41 $8 −$33 (-81%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $4 −$2 (-36%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ $960 $1 −$959 (-100%)
Will Kevin De Bruyne record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $1 +$0 (+102%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Yes 10¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 134 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 17 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 17 $160 −$160 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 +$45 +1329%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $194 +$257 +133%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $420 +$1,580 +376%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,540 +$2,460 +160%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $740 +$1,260 +170%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $980 +$1,020 +104%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $404 −$404 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $660 +$340 +52%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $500 +$500 +100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $380 −$380 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,017 −$1,017 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $900 +$1,099 +122%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,080 +$1,920 +178%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $700 −$700 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $400 −$400 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $380 −$380 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $800 −$800 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $120 +$1,380 +1150%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $280 −$280 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,820 +$2,177 +120%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $980 −$980 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $877 −$877 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $620 +$1,380 +223%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,115 −$1,100 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $998 +$996 +100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $480 +$519 +108%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $748 −$748 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $960 −$960 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,110 −$1,110 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $414 −$414 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $380 +$1,620 +426%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $880 −$880 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $860 +$1,140 +133%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $620 −$620 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $902 +$1,055 +117%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $930 −$930 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $26 +$22 +85%
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 0 Chile? Jun 09 $410 −$402 -98%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $1,175 −$1,175 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 30¢ $832 10m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 30¢ $25 10m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 30¢ $4 10m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 30¢ $9 11m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 30¢ $31 11m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $1,097 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $178 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $563 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $47 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $18 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $134 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $22 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $4 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $9 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $40 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $9 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $9 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $7 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $9 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $4 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $9 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $9 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $71 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $4 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $63 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $5 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $104 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $16 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,026.51 · official $8,027.11 (match) · 3500 history records