Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:10:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D1 0xd13e…f2d6 other 860 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,414 (-1%) realized −$4,475 · open +$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate69%589W / 270L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$887per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$1,309est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$761now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$87
7 days−$550
14 days−$1,142
30 days−$314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$1,285
sports 42% −$5,362
world 0% +$729
crypto 0% −$511
weather 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -5.8% -14.8% 55% 6% -11.1%
≤30d 144 -0.7% -10.1% 72% 20% -9.8%
≤90d 647 -2.1% -11.5% 71% 29% -10.4%
all 859 -3.3% -12.5% 69% 32% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 32% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 14% -18.9%
15% -28.5% 8% -26.7%
20% -35.5% 4% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$281 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$761
Realized−$4,475
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses589 / 270
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$1,309
Open positions1
Markets (closed)859 / 860
History coverage149d
Avg bet$887
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 859 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 75¢ 81¢ $700 $761 +$61 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $752 −$12 -2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $501 −$161 -32%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $904 +$21 +2%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $802 +$76 +10%
Spread: Panama (-2.5) Jun 18 $801 +$23 +3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $701 +$43 +6%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $701 +$50 +7%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $952 −$21 -2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,854 −$87 -3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $110 +$3 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $134 −$23 -17%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $130 −$4 -3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $130 −$2 -1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $353 −$228 -64%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $586 −$221 -38%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $862 −$280 -32%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $802 +$58 +7%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,505 −$785 -52%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,403 +$101 +7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,412 +$81 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,754 −$183 -10%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $502 +$50 +10%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2,005 +$162 +8%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,504 +$144 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $704 +$79 +11%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3,107 +$261 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $390 −$3 -1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2,006 +$214 +11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $302 −$134 -44%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1,002 +$83 +8%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1,504 +$143 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,004 +$157 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $903 +$96 +11%
Spread: Knicks (-21.5) Jun 11 $601 +$30 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,007 −$1,039 -52%
Spread: UD Las Palmas (-1.5) Jun 10 $802 −$104 -13%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 10 $10 −$7 -65%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $603 −$21 -4%
Spread: CD Castellón (-1.5) Jun 09 $703 +$110 +16%
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $402 −$161 -40%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $401 −$188 -47%
ITF Wuning: Kyoka Okamura vs Hiromi Abe Jun 09 $201 −$22 -11%
Spread: Knicks (-22.5) Jun 09 $601 +$30 +5%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1,302 +$83 +6%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $801 +$44 +6%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $301 +$36 +12%
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $601 +$30 +5%
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. FC Imabari: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $201 +$46 +23%
Will Honduras win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $901 +$30 +3%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $701 +$28 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $705 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 91¢ $740 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $752 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 65¢ $340 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $501 3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 88¢ $925 4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $401 6h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $503 7h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $878 18h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $802 21h
Spread: Panama (-2.5) SELL Ghana 100¢ $824 21h
Spread: Panama (-2.5) BUY Ghana 97¢ $801 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $744 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 94¢ $701 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $752 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $701 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 91¢ $931 27h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $952 35h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $948 40h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $940 40h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 93¢ $859 40h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $901 40h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 87¢ $961 40h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $902 42h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $110 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $113 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $110 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 71¢ $111 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 85¢ $131 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $760.57 · official $742.00 · 2398 history records