Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:47:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D1 0xd13d…a958 crypto 1187 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$725 (-2%) realized −$845 · open +$120
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate65%787W / 426L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day47.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$362now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$213
7 days−$224
14 days−$269
30 days−$352
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$656
other 6% −$647
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -43.6% -49.0% 35% 19% -23.4%
≤30d 1106 -2.5% -11.8% 68% 50% -10.6%
≤90d 1213 -5.4% -14.4% 65% 48% -13.9%
all 1213 -5.4% -14.4% 65% 48% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 48% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 39% -22.2%
15% -30.0% 30% -29.7%
20% -36.9% 19% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$362
Realized−$845
Unrealized+$120
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses787 / 426
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1213 / 1187
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day47.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1213 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 40¢ 60¢ $242 $362 +$120 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 322 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$30 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $100 −$48 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $44 +$56 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $27 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $19 +$7 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$7 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $108 −$84 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $257 −$80 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $162 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $182 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $264 −$24 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$7 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$3 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $22 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $22 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $52 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $29 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $30 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $41 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $42 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $362.28 · official $362.28 (match) · 3500 history records