Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:52:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd137…2aa3 crypto 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$547 (-13%) realized −$556 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate21%16W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day40.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$963now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$532
14 days−$622
30 days−$622
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$624
finance 3% +$19
politics 2% −$9
world 2% +$22
economics 2% −$20
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -50.5% -55.2% 20% 14% -32.1%
≤30d 76 -21.7% -29.1% 21% 17% -30.3%
≤90d 76 -21.7% -29.1% 21% 17% -30.3%
all 76 -21.7% -29.1% 21% 17% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.1% 17% -30.3%
10% ← realistic here -35.9% 16% -37.0%
15% -42.1% 16% -43.1%
20% -47.8% 16% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -62% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$25 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$963
Realized−$556
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses16 / 60
Open positions18
Markets (closed)76 / 94
History coverage11d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day40.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? Down 50¢ 57¢ $316 $362 +$46 (+15%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $40 $65 +$25 (+62%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 13¢ 20¢ $39 $58 +$20 (+50%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $68 $48 −$19 (-28%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $80 $42 −$38 (-48%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on July 2? No 2¢ 2¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+16%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on July 4? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-42%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on July 3? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+34%)
Will Chainlink reach $20 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $32 −$30 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? Jun 27 $414 +$69 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $403 −$100 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $207 −$33 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $42 −$16 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $47 +$105 +222%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $126 +$12 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 25? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -94%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 24 $50 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $41 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 23? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$60 +150%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $81 −$78 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $66 +$234 +356%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $54 −$54 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $56 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $32 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$34 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$48 +93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $43 +$57 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $32 +$68 +212%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 50¢ $327 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $105 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $106 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on July 4? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on July 3? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 4¢ $32 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? SELL Down 63¢ $483 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Down 51¢ $414 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 38¢ $104 27h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 27h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 27h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 27h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 27h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? SELL Up 17¢ $18 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 14¢ $16 29h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 2¢ $32 29h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 29h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 1¢ $32 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on July 2? BUY No 2¢ $43 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? SELL Up 39¢ $302 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 35¢ $125 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 32¢ $157 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? SELL Down 39¢ $78 2d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 26? SELL Up 18¢ $27 2d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 26¢ $42 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 48¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? SELL Up 50¢ $96 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 50¢ $104 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $963.34 · official $963.34 (match) · 468 history records