Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:35:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd136…0f18 world 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate26%21W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$7
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$6
other 20% $0
sports 14% $0
politics 11% $0
crypto 6% −$11
economics 3% $0
weather 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 24 -3.6% -12.8% 21% 4% -9.5%
≤90d 67 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 1% -9.6%
all 80 -3.4% -12.6% 26% 5% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 5% -10.3%
10% -21.0% 1% -18.9%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses21 / 59
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)80 / 83
History coverage531d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 80¢ 82¢ $15 $16 +$0 (+3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 91¢ 91¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $29 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $72 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $26 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $31 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $43 −$3 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $95 −$6 -6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $70 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $137 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $74 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $83 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $70 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $33 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $99 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $16 +$3 +20%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $60 −$1 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $68 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $71 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $66 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $138 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $32 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $31 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $26 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $64 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $67 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $62 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $14 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $85 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $77 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $14 0m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $29 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $26 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $26 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $9 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $9 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $12 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $10 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $27 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $5 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $21 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $26 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $16 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $10 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $10 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $5 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.29 · official $15.68 · 346 history records