Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd135…a276 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+2%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$1
other 20% +$1
politics 12% $0
sports 10% $0
weather 8% +$7
economics 6% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 -12.5% -20.9% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 -12.5% -20.9% 25% 0% -9.4%
all 33 -0.8% -10.3% 55% 6% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 6% -8.2%
10% -18.9% 3% -17.0%
15% -26.7% 3% -25.0%
20% -33.9% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.01 per $1 lost it wins $8.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage471d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $37 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $38 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $35 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $2 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $14 $0 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $36 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $19 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 22 $20 $0 -1%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? May 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Italy finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 17 $17 $0 +2%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 17 $20 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Apr 11 $22 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 28? Mar 30 $21 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Mar 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? Mar 27 $21 $0 +1%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 23 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $17 $0 -1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $0 $0 -8%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 17 $19 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 16 $4 +$1 +22%
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 4? Mar 05 $14 +$6 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $33 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $13 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $20 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $11 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $25 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $37 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $7 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $29 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $2 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $34 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $35 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 66¢ $32 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 66¢ $5 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 66¢ $36 24d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $19 357d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? BUY No 98¢ $2 360d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $19 391d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records