Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:34:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D1 0xd135…9dcd other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$26 (+2%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate86%12W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$104
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$104
sports 44% −$86
world 1% $0
politics 1% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -25.0% -32.1% 50% 50% -11.0%
≤90d 7 -1.3% -10.7% 71% 29% -7.5%
all 14 -0.2% -9.7% 86% 14% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 14% -7.7%
10% -18.4% 14% -16.5%
15% -26.3% 14% -24.6%
20% -33.5% 7% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$173 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$314
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses12 / 2
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage178d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $221 $219 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $93 $95 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $207 +$104 +50%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 04 $111 −$109 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $240 −$237 -99%
Will 120 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026 May 13 $11 $0 +0%
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 40% by March 31? May 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? May 13 $13 $0 +1%
Hornets vs. Magic May 13 $186 +$260 +140%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026? Mar 07 $7 $0 +2%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Mar 07 $9 $0 +2%
Negative GDP growth in 2025? Mar 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? Mar 07 $12 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February? Mar 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $0.00 end of January? Feb 04 $12 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by 2025? Jan 09 $46 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $314.13 · official $314.13 (match) · 29 history records