Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:37:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd135…c665 other 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%14W / 142L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$20
14 days−$32
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$26
other 28% −$35
sports 21% −$14
crypto 6% −$7
world 4% −$4
economics 3% −$3
tech 3% −$11
culture 2% −$1
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.8% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 71 -1.0% -10.4% 7% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 146 -0.7% -10.2% 7% 0% -10.0%
all 156 -0.7% -10.1% 9% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses14 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)156 / 157
History coverage101d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? No 96¢ 96¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $71 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 18 $135 −$2 -2%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $164 $0 -0%
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $65 −$2 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 17 $175 −$3 -2%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $71 +$1 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $123 −$1 -1%
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $74 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 16 $169 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $236 −$1 -1%
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $189 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $64 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $132 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $129 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $205 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $109 $0 +0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $229 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $214 −$3 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $64 $0 -1%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $228 −$2 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $103 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 07 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $49 −$2 -5%
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $50 −$3 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 04 $116 −$2 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $246 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $288 $0 -0%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $271 −$1 -0%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 02 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 02 $326 −$2 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $524 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $202 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $205 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $209 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $112 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $70 39m
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $63 1h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $64 7h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $70 7h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $71 12h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $61 13h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $62 21h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $63 22h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $63 28h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $3 28h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $3 32h
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $63 33h
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $65 41h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $72 41h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $73 47h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $70 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $14 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $56 2d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $72 2d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $37 2d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $33 2d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $62 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $62 2d
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $73 2d
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $74 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $64 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $64 3d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $64 3d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $64 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.01 · official $70.01 (match) · 703 history records