Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd131…eb1a crypto 541 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$518 (-15%) realized −$442 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%161W / 354L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$461
7 days−$450
14 days−$413
30 days−$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% −$198
world 24% −$140
other 20% −$124
sports 14% −$113
finance 3% +$19
politics 1% −$3
culture 1% +$3
weather 1% −$14
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -74.4% -76.9% 7% 7% -79.4%
≤30d 133 -9.5% -18.2% 25% 23% -28.8%
≤90d 515 -13.9% -22.1% 31% 28% -23.9%
all 515 -13.9% -22.1% 31% 28% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 28% -23.9%
10% -29.5% 26% -31.2%
15% -36.3% 22% -37.8%
20% -42.6% 19% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized−$442
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses161 / 354
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions26
Markets (closed)515 / 541
History coverage81d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 515 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 40¢ 27¢ $138 $92 −$46 (-33%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 20¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 28¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 49¢ 47¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 38¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-52%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+41%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 4¢ $6 $1 −$4 (-79%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-63%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $6 $0 −$5 (-91%)
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? No 11¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-91%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-91%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-86%)
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? No 11¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $3 +$15 +474%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 14 $15 $0 -2%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on May 18? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-05-17? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$8 -67%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Fonseca Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Vedat Muriqi be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -18%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -76%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Malta win on 2026-06-01? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 19? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by April 30? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-26? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Michele Ribecai Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $5 27m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $10 33m
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 49¢ $15 33m
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $8 58m
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 21¢ $15 59m
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 30¢ $15 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 86¢ $15 14h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 87¢ $15 14h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 14h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 15h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 18h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 18h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 18h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 18h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 18h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 75¢ $65 18h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 21h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 35¢ $10 21h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 38h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 38h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 38h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $16 38h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 39h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $8 39h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $5 39h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 97¢ $17 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.23 · official $193.23 (match) · 1420 history records