Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D1 0xd130…5863 sports 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$129 (-1%) realized −$129 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%29W / 28L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$581
7 days+$1,085
14 days+$896
30 days+$554
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$967
crypto 25% −$529
other 8% −$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +72.6% +56.2% 64% 64% +43.0%
≤30d 30 +9.4% -1.1% 50% 47% +2.3%
≤90d 57 +0.6% -9.0% 51% 47% -6.4%
all 57 +0.6% -9.0% 51% 47% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 47% -6.4%
10% -17.7% 46% -15.4%
15% -25.6% 39% -23.5%
20% -32.9% 21% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$92 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses29 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 67
History coverage37d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 +$110 +216%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $28 −$27 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $10 +$14 +137%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $726 +$320 +44%
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 21 $532 +$193 +36%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O Jun 21 $199 +$334 +168%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $63 −$62 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $202 +$59 +29%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND United States vs. Austral Jun 20 $30 +$172 +568%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $96 −$94 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $97 −$96 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $98 +$101 +103%
Centurion 2: Orel Kimhi vs Philip Henning Jun 02 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $23 −$23 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 May 29 $394 −$390 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $228 +$87 +38%
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5 May 29 $51 −$50 -98%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 29 $78 +$55 +71%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 29 $212 +$17 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $202 +$88 +43%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5 May 24 $11 −$11 -98%
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 May 24 $240 −$237 -99%
SD Eibar vs. Córdoba CF: O/U 3.5 May 24 $169 +$68 +40%
SD Eibar vs. Córdoba CF: O/U 4.5 May 24 $119 +$44 +37%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $70 +$53 +77%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $80 −$6 -8%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $111 −$31 -28%
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 3.5 May 23 $205 +$51 +25%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $141 +$34 +24%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $139 +$82 +59%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 May 22 $162 −$160 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 May 22 $132 +$30 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 22 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 22 $36 −$35 -96%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 May 22 $100 +$104 +104%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 0.5 May 22 $40 −$39 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 May 22 $45 −$5 -11%
Istanbul: Hynek Barton vs David Jorda Sanchis May 22 $135 −$40 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 19 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 19 $1 +$3 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -96%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $204 −$200 -98%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $113 +$91 +80%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 May 19 $83 +$29 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 19 $799 −$799 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 19 $796 +$83 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) SELL Toronto Blue Jays 100¢ $161 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY $17 2h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 31¢ $51 4h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND France vs. Iraq: France O/U 7.5 Corners AN BUY 12¢ $22 10h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 AND New Zeala BUY $11 27h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? AND Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 C BUY $10 28h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026- BUY 27¢ $20 29h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 AND Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY 59¢ $1,000 34h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $28 45h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $24 45h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/ BUY $2 45h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 45h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 45h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 46h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,046 46h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $726 47h
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? SELL Yes 99¢ $725 47h
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 72¢ $532 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O BUY 37¢ $199 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 22¢ $63 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 39¢ $261 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $202 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND United States vs. Austral BUY 15¢ $30 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners AND Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Hal BUY 11¢ $21 4d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AND Belgi BUY 19¢ $26 7d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 AND Belgium v BUY 24¢ $19 7d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 46¢ $96 7d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 58¢ $97 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 9d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $199 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records