Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:47:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd130…15af other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-27%) realized −$62 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -81% what you keep after slip
Net edge-81%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$62
sports 23% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-79.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -77.6% -79.8% 0% 0% -88.6%
≤30d 4 -77.6% -79.8% 0% 0% -88.6%
≤90d 4 -77.6% -79.8% 0% 0% -88.6%
all 4 -77.6% -79.8% 0% 0% -88.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -79.8% 0% -88.6%
10% -81.7% 0% -89.7%
15% -83.5% 0% -90.7%
20% -85.1% 0% -91.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -87% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -78% · $-wt -87% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$16 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$62
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-3%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $54 −$53 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 1h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 42h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 42h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 42h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 42h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $54 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.65 · official $158.65 (match) · 9 history records