Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D1 0xd12f…e85a other 430 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7,204 (+11%) realized +$7,058 · open +$146
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate77%255W / 78L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day54.8pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$8,368now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$236
14 days+$365
30 days+$4,261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$3,767
politics 20% +$899
crypto 11% +$53
tech 8% +$230
sports 7% +$457
finance 7% +$723
world 3% +$315
culture 0% −$8
economics 0% +$10
weather 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +27.3% +15.1% 74% 16% -8.0%
≤30d 198 +16.2% +5.1% 70% 28% -0.6%
≤90d 333 +25.8% +13.9% 77% 39% +0.6%
all 333 +25.8% +13.9% 77% 39% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.9% 39% +0.6%
10% ← realistic here +3.0% 26% -9.1%
15% -7.0% 19% -17.8%
20% -16.1% 15% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 39% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +39% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$15 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.44 per $1 lost it wins $6.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$8,368
Realized+$7,058
Unrealized+$146
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses255 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions96
Markets (closed)333 / 430
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$157
Trades / day54.8
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 96 History 333 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI? No 98¢ 98¢ $2,498 $2,482 −$17 (-1%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 82¢ 78¢ $982 $923 −$60 (-6%)
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4900+ by June 30? No 86¢ 94¢ $735 $801 +$66 (+9%)
Will Claude Code Commits be less than 500.0k on June 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $400 $411 +$11 (+3%)
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4800+ by June 30? No 58¢ 90¢ $266 $411 +$145 (+54%)
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 5000+ by June 30? No 83¢ 95¢ $282 $324 +$42 (+15%)
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 54¢ 48¢ $325 $286 −$39 (-12%)
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 49¢ 42¢ $325 $280 −$44 (-14%)
Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 84¢ 92¢ $160 $175 +$15 (+9%)
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 4.50%? Yes 77¢ 68¢ $184 $163 −$21 (-11%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes 54¢ 36¢ $172 $113 −$58 (-34%)
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No 83¢ 88¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 350.0k by June 30? No 90¢ 84¢ $113 $105 −$7 (-7%)
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Jay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by August 30? Yes 96¢ 94¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Jay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by June 30? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? Yes 88¢ 84¢ $88 $84 −$4 (-5%)
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
E. Jean Carroll federally charged by July 31, 2026? No 65¢ 86¢ $55 $73 +$18 (+32%)
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be less than 0.75%? No 95¢ 96¢ $69 $70 +$1 (+2%)
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30? Yes 52¢ 43¢ $82 $69 −$14 (-17%)
Will Spotify reach 1 billion total users in 2026? No 90¢ 80¢ $75 $66 −$8 (-11%)
Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 78¢ 84¢ $60 $65 +$5 (+9%)
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 7¢ 13¢ $31 $63 +$32 (+102%)
FDA approves GSK & Spero Therapeutics' Tebipenem HBr? Yes 56¢ 64¢ $53 $61 +$8 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $222 +$26 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Claude Code Commits be between 700.0k and 750.0k on June 30? Jun 15 $4 +$11 +269%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +133%
Will the No. 7 Toyota Racing win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans? Jun 15 $684 +$9 +1%
Will the No. 43 Inter Europol Competition win the LMP2 class at the 20 Jun 15 $288 +$5 +2%
Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential el Jun 15 $24 +$29 +119%
Will the No. 13 13 Autosport win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans? Jun 15 $91 $0 +0%
Will the No. 58 Garage 59 win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans? Jun 15 $62 $0 +0%
Will the No. 61 Iron Lynx win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the No. 21 Vista AF Corse win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans? Jun 15 $83 $0 +0%
Will the No. 37 CLX Motorsport win the LMP2 class at the 2026 24 Hours Jun 15 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the No. 77 Proton Competition win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans? Jun 15 $83 $0 +0%
Will the No. 83 AF Corse win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans? Jun 15 $87 $0 +0%
Will the No. 36 Alpine Endurance Team win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans Jun 15 $130 $0 +0%
Will the No. 19 Genesis Magma Racing win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans? Jun 15 $83 $0 +0%
Will the No. 20 BMW M Team WRT win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans? Jun 15 $93 $0 +0%
Will the No. 35 Alpine Endurance Team win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans Jun 15 $130 $0 +0%
Will the No. 51 Ferrari AF Corse win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the No. 15 BMW M Team WRT win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans? Jun 15 $53 $0 +0%
Will the No. 8 Toyota Racing win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans? Jun 15 $98 $0 +0%
Will the No. 38 Cadillac Hertz Team JOTA win the 2026 24 Hours of Le M Jun 15 $83 $0 +0%
Will the No. 343 Inter Europol Competition win the LMP2 class at the 2 Jun 15 $139 $0 +0%
Will the No. 93 Peugeot TotalEnergies win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans Jun 15 $130 $0 +0%
Will the No. 30 Duqueine Team win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans? Jun 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 15 $9 −$5 -53%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T? Jun 15 $13 +$3 +24%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $50B and $60B in its IPO? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.25T and 1.50T? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -52%
Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? Jun 14 $2,368 +$85 +4%
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam? Jun 13 $65 +$35 +54%
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Jun 13 $52 +$5 +9%
Will "Doctor Banner" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +60%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 12 $0 $0 +300%
Will it rain in San Francisco on June 10? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 12 $1,197 +$3 +0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $572 +$7 +1%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $1,557 +$11 +1%
Will it rain in Dallas on June 10? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will it rain in Atlanta on June 10? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Amy Klobuchar be the next Senate Majority Leader? Jun 12 $80 +$1 +2%
Will Gérald Darmanin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential Jun 12 $813 +$37 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $58 19m
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $165 37m
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $88 39m
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 8h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 8h
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 9h
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 10h
Jay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by December BUY Yes 96¢ $56 10h
Jay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by October BUY Yes 96¢ $42 10h
Jay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by August 3 BUY Yes 96¢ $100 10h
Jay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by June 30? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 10h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $260 11h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $503 11h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 11h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 11h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 11h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 11h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $14 12h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $16 12h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $9 13h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 36¢ $36 13h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 13h
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $9 20h
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI? BUY No 99¢ $300 20h
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 30h
Will Claude Code Commits be between 700.0k and 750.0k on June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $8 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $6 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,368.08 · official $8,367.78 (match) · 3500 history records