Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:43:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D1 0xd12d…3abd other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$112 (+12%) realized −$266 · open +$378
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$1,311now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$378
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -137% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -137% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,311
Realized−$266
Unrealized+$378
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage4d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $457 $693 +$235 (+51%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $237 $397 +$160 (+67%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $237 $220 −$16 (-7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $462 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $244 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $244 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,310.59 · official $1,311.62 (match) · 15 history records