Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:52:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd12b…19ab world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$1
sports 23% +$7
other 14% $0
politics 8% +$1
finance 6% $0
weather 6% −$1
crypto 5% −$12
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
all 32 +3.8% -6.1% 47% 12% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 12% -10.2%
10% -15.1% 12% -18.7%
15% -23.3% 6% -26.6%
20% -30.8% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage490d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $53 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $35 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 +4%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? May 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 15 $6 $0 +0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 13 $3 $0 -1%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $1 $0 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $23 −$6 -27%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 8? Mar 11 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Trump's 2025 joint address get >46m viewers? Mar 07 $14 $0 +3%
Will Trump's 2025 joint address get 42-46m viewers? Mar 05 $1 +$2 +158%
Colorado vs. Texas Tech Mar 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump's 2025 joint address get 38-42m viewers? Mar 05 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on March 5? Mar 05 $14 −$1 -8%
DePaul vs. Providence Mar 05 $18 −$2 -11%
Wisconsin vs. Minnesota Mar 04 $24 −$6 -25%
Timberwolves vs. Hornets Mar 04 $56 −$3 -6%
Bodo Glimt vs. FC Twente Mar 04 $10 +$18 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $31 58m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $2 58m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $33 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $33 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $33 5h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $33 20d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $33 20d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $33 20d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $33 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $36 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $36 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $17 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $4 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $13 21d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes $2 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes $2 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $33 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $33 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $33 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 81¢ $22 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 81¢ $11 25d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $2 361d
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes $0 397d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? BUY No 96¢ $1 405d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $2 419d
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes $0 433d
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes $0 433d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records