Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D1 0xd12a…e611 weather 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$163 (+3%) realized +$163 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%25W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$249per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$45
14 days+$51
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 19 +3.2% -6.6% 100% 0% -7.0%
≤90d 25 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -7.2%
all 25 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 0% -7.2%
10% -15.8% 0% -16.1%
15% -24.0% 0% -24.2%
20% -31.4% 0% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$163
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses25 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage55d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $375 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 24? Jun 24 $368 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $359 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $336 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $340 +$12 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? Jun 19 $334 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Jun 15 $328 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $321 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $294 +$25 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $291 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 7? Jun 08 $235 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 6? Jun 07 $228 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5? Jun 06 $45 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 5? Jun 06 $134 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $212 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $108 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $140 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $245 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 31? May 31 $240 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 22? May 26 $234 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 17? May 20 $230 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 14? May 15 $230 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 11? May 12 $156 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 10? May 11 $218 +$12 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 1? May 09 $220 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $379 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $375 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $375 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $368 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $368 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $359 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $343 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $177 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $128 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $32 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $352 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $28 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $54 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $234 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $24 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $340 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $334 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $328 13d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $328 14d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $321 14d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $0 15d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $320 15d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? BUY No 92¢ $241 16d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? BUY No 92¢ $10 16d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? BUY No 92¢ $10 16d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? BUY No 92¢ $9 16d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? BUY No 92¢ $12 16d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? BUY No 92¢ $13 16d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $296 16d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 98¢ $139 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records