Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:55:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd12a…b332 crypto 79 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3068 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$1,787 (+14%) realized +$1,787 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +360% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +254% what you keep after slip
Net edge+254%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate50%50W / 51L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day3068.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3068 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+316.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 +360.0% +316.2% 50% 29% -10.1%
≤30d 101 +360.0% +316.2% 50% 29% -10.1%
≤90d 101 +360.0% +316.2% 50% 29% -10.1%
all 101 +360.0% +316.2% 50% 29% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3068.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +316.2% 29% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here +276.4% 24% -18.7%
15% +240.0% 22% -26.5%
20% +206.7% 22% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +360% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late +671% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
38.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$10 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,787
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses50 / 51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)101 / 79
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$159
Trades / day3068.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 101 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$13 +13282%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$3 +26253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$11 +11744%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$2 -1438%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$19 -10936%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$18 +17616%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$16 +8496%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$40 +40921%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$1 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$24 -3241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$24 +518357%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$58 +106074%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$14 +124642%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$98 +99278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$74 +97617%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$64 +63310%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$52 +295949%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$22 +245909%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$28 +30988%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$132 +1595286%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$97 +577873%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 28 $62 −$14 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $102 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $273 −$6 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 23 $165 −$15 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $135 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $219 −$25 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $97 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $206 −$16 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $113 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $207 −$13 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $74 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $18 +$11 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $167 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $187 −$7 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $169 −$26 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $164 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $100 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $114 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $33 +$11 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $200 −$8 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $293 −$14 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $217 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $197 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $66 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $138 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $117 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $187 −$7 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records