Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:50:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd128…a435 crypto 196 markets active 15h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24 (-12%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%65W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -8.9% -17.5% 37% 37% -15.3%
≤30d 87 -19.3% -27.0% 33% 33% -24.9%
≤90d 196 -15.7% -23.8% 33% 33% -21.5%
all 196 -15.7% -23.8% 33% 33% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 33% -21.5%
10% -31.1% 33% -29.0%
15% -37.7% 33% -35.9%
20% -43.8% 33% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses65 / 131
Open positions0
Markets (closed)196 / 196
History coverage54d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 196 Trades
no open positions (130 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +198%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$3 +252%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +166%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$2 +198%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 262 history records