Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:54:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd126…d092 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+3%) realized +$31 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$35
crypto 27% +$7
sports 16% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -7.6% -16.4% 67% 44% -2.7%
≤30d 9 -7.6% -16.4% 67% 44% -2.7%
≤90d 9 -7.6% -16.4% 67% 44% -2.7%
all 9 -7.6% -16.4% 67% 44% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 44% -2.7%
10% -24.4% 33% -12.0%
15% -31.7% 33% -20.5%
20% -38.4% 33% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 38¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-31%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 58¢ 16¢ $25 $7 −$18 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $25 +$17 +67%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 +$16 +62%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 1h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $42 1h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $25 3h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.10 · official $35.02 (match) · 18 history records