Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:33:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd124…2786 crypto 1706 markets active 0h ago coverage 113d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 112d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate92%1578W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5
sports 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 412 +1.0% -8.6% 88% 45% -7.3%
≤30d 412 +1.0% -8.6% 88% 45% -7.3%
≤90d 1243 +0.5% -9.1% 93% 15% -8.8%
all 1707 +0.3% -9.2% 92% 11% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 11% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 1% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1578 / 129
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1707 / 1706
History coverage113d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1707 Trades
no open positions (71 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records