Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:02:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D1 0xd124…aa4d crypto 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$278 (+2%) realized +$278 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate93%42W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$787
sports 9% −$375
other 1% +$279
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +6.6% -3.6% 93% 22% -4.6%
≤30d 45 +6.6% -3.6% 93% 22% -4.6%
≤90d 45 +6.6% -3.6% 93% 22% -4.6%
all 45 +6.6% -3.6% 93% 22% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 22% -4.6%
10% -12.8% 7% -13.7%
15% -21.2% 7% -22.0%
20% -29.0% 7% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$168 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$278
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses42 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 51
History coverage4d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $762 +$26 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $732 +$33 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $683 +$48 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $652 +$32 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $584 +$66 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $566 +$17 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $556 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $499 +$60 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $429 +$71 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $374 +$57 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $361 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $341 +$17 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $335 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $288 +$51 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $262 +$27 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $237 +$27 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $230 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $216 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 25 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $352 +$28 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $333 +$50 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $225 +$113 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $215 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $206 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $191 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $176 +$16 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $166 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $156 +$13 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $146 +$12 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 25 $135 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 25 $130 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $129 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $125 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 25 $120 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $159 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $155 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $151 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 24 $136 +$14 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $126 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $120 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $381 −$375 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $151 +$230 +152%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $37 +$50 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $762 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $732 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $683 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $652 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $584 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $566 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $556 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $499 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $429 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $374 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $361 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $341 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $335 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $288 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $262 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $237 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $230 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $216 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $201 3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire BUY 35¢ $204 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $352 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $333 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $225 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $215 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $206 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $191 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $176 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $166 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $156 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $146 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $200.00 · 98 history records