Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:25:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd121…495d crypto 1139 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$668 (+2%) realized +$668 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate63%712W / 427L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day28.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 97d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$970
finance 3% −$356
other 2% −$19
sports 1% −$181
tech 0% +$14
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 192 +7.1% -3.1% 70% 60% -11.5%
≤30d 307 +4.2% -5.7% 71% 54% -11.6%
≤90d 857 -3.3% -12.5% 56% 42% -15.2%
all 1139 -2.0% -11.4% 63% 45% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 45% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 12% -21.0%
15% -27.6% 3% -28.6%
20% -34.7% 1% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$14 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$668
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses712 / 427
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1139 / 1139
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1139 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET Jun 29 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $41 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $41 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $30 −$17 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET Jun 29 $30 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $41 −$15 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $41 −$12 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $23 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$13 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $23 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $23 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 29 $31 −$9 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 29 $23 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 29 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET Jun 29 $41 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$6 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$7 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$4 +22%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $259 −$19 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$6 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $23 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $28 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $34 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $41 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.62 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records