Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:51:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd120…9177 other 202 markets active 2h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$135 (+2%) realized +$133 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate72%144W / 57L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$19
14 days+$30
30 days+$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$129
sports 12% −$18
crypto 5% +$16
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -11.1% -19.6% 72% 11% -8.1%
≤30d 57 +31.9% +19.3% 82% 12% -7.7%
≤90d 137 -5.3% -14.3% 66% 12% -9.7%
all 201 -4.6% -13.7% 72% 10% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 10% -8.7%
10% -22.0% 4% -17.5%
15% -29.5% 2% -25.4%
20% -36.4% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$133
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses144 / 57
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)201 / 202
History coverage231d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51.5 and 52 million views on day 5? No 94¢ 99¢ $57 $59 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get 52 million or more views on day 4? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $11 +$4 +33%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $260 −$6 -2%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 3? Jun 16 $16 $0 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $4 +$1 +35%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 45 million views on day 3? Jun 16 $0 $0 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $61 +$6 +10%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 37 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $14 +$1 +6%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: United Arab Emirates vs Malaysia Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $174 +$7 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $33 +$2 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Jun 14 $62 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $29 $0 -2%
Will MrBeast say "Apple" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates Jun 13 $90 +$8 +8%
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 13 $262 $0 +0%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs Japan Jun 10 $82 $0 +0%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $85 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.5 and 64 million views in wee Jun 06 $26 +$1 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61.5 and 62 million views in wee Jun 06 $55 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? Jun 06 $99 −$4 -4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 61.5 million views in wee Jun 06 $35 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 61 million views in week 1? Jun 06 $88 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views on day 6? Jun 05 $207 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $109 +$2 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 62 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $14 +$1 +8%
Will MrBeast's next video get 61 million or more views on day 5? Jun 04 $122 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $63 −$2 -3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $67 +$12 +17%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $150 $0 +0%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Malaysia vs China Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 Jun 03 $227 $0 +0%
between 39 and 41 million views Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
between 41 and 43 million views Jun 02 $127 $0 +0%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $19 −$1 -4%
50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by May 31? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 01 $22 +$4 +18%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 30 $173 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 28 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 28 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 28 $15 $0 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $2 +$98 +4316%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Sierra Leone vs Rwand May 28 $0 $0 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51.5 and 52 million views on day BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51.5 and 52 million views on day BUY No 94¢ $28 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get 52 million or more views on day 4? BUY No 100¢ $100 29h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 BUY No 100¢ $248 42h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 SELL Yes 30¢ $4 46h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 SELL No 56¢ $5 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 55¢ $9 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 BUY No 58¢ $6 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 45 million views on day 3? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 61¢ $6 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 3 BUY No 73¢ $4 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 3? BUY No 97¢ $5 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 3? BUY No 98¢ $11 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 SELL Yes 87¢ $17 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 88¢ $9 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 89¢ $9 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 89¢ $9 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 BUY Yes $1 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 BUY Yes $0 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 BUY No 94¢ $14 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 86¢ $26 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 87¢ $9 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 37 million views on day 2 BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 98¢ $8 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 99¢ $99 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 95¢ $19 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 SELL No 95¢ $28 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 92¢ $9 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.13 · official $59.13 (match) · 696 history records