Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:49:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D1 0xd11c…2557 sports 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$137 (-7%) realized −$137 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate62%75W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$46
14 days−$99
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$90
crypto 8% −$28
economics 6% −$48
finance 3% $0
weather 3% +$6
politics 1% $0
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -50.7% -55.4% 0% 0% -51.6%
≤30d 18 +4.9% -5.1% 67% 61% -26.7%
≤90d 53 +8.0% -2.3% 66% 64% -12.7%
all 120 -3.9% -13.1% 62% 51% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 51% -17.3%
10% -21.4% 41% -25.2%
15% -29.0% 32% -32.4%
20% -35.9% 18% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses75 / 45
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)120 / 120
History coverage244d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 120 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 26 $10 −$6 -56%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 26 $89 −$41 -45%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $68 −$67 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +103%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$5 +95%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$5 +53%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$6 +56%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +33%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $20 +$10 +51%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 +$1 +22%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $57 +$6 +10%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 +$2 +46%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $50 +$17 +33%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $10 +$5 +53%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group May 21 $10 +$4 +36%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Grou May 21 $5 +$2 +40%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group May 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 18 $5 +$2 +31%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 17 $5 $0 -8%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $10 +$4 +39%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 13 $5 +$5 +90%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 12 $20 +$11 +54%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 11 $4 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $8 +$17 +206%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $9 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 04 $10 +$6 +60%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A May 01 $15 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $10 +$9 +93%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $10 +$3 +25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $30 +$10 +32%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $10 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $10 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 18 $5 +$9 +188%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $49 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 84¢ $68 13d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 69¢ $10 13d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 50¢ $5 14d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $10 14d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $3 14d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 67¢ $5 14d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 57¢ $10 14d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 75¢ $10 14d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $10 14d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 64¢ $10 14d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 74¢ $5 14d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 50¢ $5 14d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 81¢ $5 17d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Spirit 90¢ $57 18d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 53¢ $5 18d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BetBoom Team 67¢ $5 18d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Spirit 100¢ $67 19d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Spirit 73¢ $45 19d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Spirit 73¢ $5 19d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $89 20d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 20d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $10 33d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $2 33d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $8 33d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $10 34d
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group SELL Lynn Vision 98¢ $14 36d
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group BUY Lynn Vision 70¢ $10 36d
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships BUY BC.Game Esports 38¢ $2 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 224 history records