Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:15:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D1 0xd11a…5ffd other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$136 (+22%) realized +$132 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$95
14 days+$114
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$106
finance 14% +$28
tech 7% +$2
culture 3% −$8
sports 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +8.0% -2.3% 67% 58% +36.8%
≤30d 22 -0.5% -10.0% 59% 55% +22.2%
≤90d 22 -0.5% -10.0% 59% 55% +22.2%
all 22 -0.5% -10.0% 59% 55% +22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 55% +22.2%
10% -18.6% 50% +10.5%
15% -26.5% 36% -0.2%
20% -33.7% 23% -10.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +35% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$4 · ×3.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.49 per $1 lost it wins $4.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$269
Realized+$132
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)22 / 38
History coverage15d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+1%)
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+4%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 in June? No 64¢ 63¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-2%)
Will Moisés Caicedo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 91¢ $19 $25 +$6 (+32%)
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 69¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+5%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 76¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+28%)
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $19 $12 −$8 (-40%)
Will Mateo Kovačić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 50¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-32%)
Will Charles De Ketelaere score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 49¢ $6 $10 +$3 (+53%)
Will Chris Wood score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 85¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+93%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 22 2026? No 86¢ 85¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 69¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 66¢ $5 $7 +$1 (+28%)
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 16¢ $7 $2 −$4 (-62%)
Will Algeria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 24? Jun 24 $39 +$11 +29%
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $23 +$20 +84%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 3 Canada? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $11 +$5 +40%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? Jun 23 $4 +$3 +67%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? Jun 23 $44 +$50 +112%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Jun 23 $11 +$3 +25%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 23 $26 +$12 +45%
Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $12 −$1 -7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Joshua Kimmich score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $7 $0 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Czechia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +49%
Will Dan Ndoye score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $15 +$22 +148%
Will Noah Okafor score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $24 +$12 +51%
Will Granit Xhaka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $26 −$1 -4%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 11 $41 +$9 +22%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 11 $16 +$4 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 86¢ $9 1h
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 31¢ $8 2h
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2h
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 38¢ $8 2h
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 31¢ $6 2h
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 30¢ $31 2h
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 37¢ $38 2h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 70¢ $3 4h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 24? BUY No 77¢ $39 20h
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 72¢ $43 21h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 21h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 28h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 28h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 32h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 43h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $64 43h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 44h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $25 45h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? SELL Yes 20¢ $14 45h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? SELL No 76¢ $38 2d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? SELL No 89¢ $30 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $11 2d
Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $6 6d
Will Joshua Kimmich score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 36¢ $7 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $7 9d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $6 9d
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $269.38 · official $269.38 (match) · 74 history records