Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd119…63a3 other 261 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 246L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$19
14 days−$34
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$48
sports 26% −$23
politics 9% −$8
economics 6% −$2
culture 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$5
world 3% −$4
tech 1% −$2
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 261 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)261 / 261
History coverage138d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 261 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $133 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $444 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $207 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,137 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $474 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $255 −$1 -1%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 18 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $461 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $110 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $131 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $128 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $275 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $247 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $577 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $229 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $204 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $458 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $160 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $536 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $362 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $930 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $360 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $379 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $275 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 09 $675 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $364 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $52 23m
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $52 1h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 3h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 4h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 6h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 8h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 9h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 11h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 13h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 15h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 16h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 18h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 19h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 20h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 25h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 27h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $53 28h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $53 29h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 31h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 32h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 34h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 35h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 37h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 38h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 40h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 42h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 43h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 44h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $53 47h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1454 history records