Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:00:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd119…ebdd weather 703 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (164 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,343 (+3%) realized +$1,435 · open −$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%693W / 14L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day164.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$230
7 days+$415
14 days+$232
30 days+$600
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$830
other 0% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (164 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 +1.2% -8.5% 97% 5% -6.5%
≤30d 707 +1.7% -8.0% 98% 2% -8.5%
≤90d 707 +1.7% -8.0% 98% 2% -8.5%
all 707 +1.7% -8.0% 98% 2% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover164.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 2% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 1% -17.2%
15% -24.8% 1% -25.2%
20% -32.2% 1% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$36 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized+$1,435
Unrealized−$92
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses693 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)707 / 703
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$75
Trades / day164.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 707 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $81 $81 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? No 98¢ 40¢ $156 $64 −$92 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 9? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 14? Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 12? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 27? Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on May 9? Jun 17 $49 −$53 -107%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $135 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $158 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? Jun 16 $156 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $148 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $149 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $101 +$394 +392%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $69 +$25 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $112 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $122 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $123 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $122 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $123 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $123 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Jun 15 $119 +$17 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $77 +$36 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $106 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $157 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $112 57m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 57m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $7 57m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 57m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $80 57m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $136 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $135 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $16 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $159 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $158 6h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $84 9h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $81 9h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $84 9h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $8 14h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $216 14h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $223 14h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $194 14h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $30 14h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $193 14h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 14h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $46 14h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $46 14h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $149 15h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $148 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $149 16h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $149 16h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $13 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.01 · official $145.02 (match) · 3500 history records