Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:03:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D1 0xd116…be32 sports 162 markets active 2h ago coverage 1191d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$12,108 (-10%) realized −$10,735 · open −$1,373
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate72%113W / 44L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$752per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$534
7 days+$1,152
14 days+$1,236
30 days+$1,758
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$8,383
sports 30% −$4,178
politics 3% +$293
other 2% +$181
weather 0% +$5
crypto 0% +$288
tech 0% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +221.0% +190.4% 100% 50% +4.6%
≤30d 10 +88.1% +70.2% 100% 50% +3.6%
≤90d 24 +42.4% +28.9% 92% 42% +7.2%
all 157 +11.6% +1.0% 72% 49% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 49% -17.3%
10% -8.7% 35% -25.3%
15% -17.5% 25% -32.5%
20% -25.6% 23% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$909) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$200 vs −$768 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1191d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized−$10,735
Unrealized−$1,373
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses113 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)157 / 162
History coverage1191d
Avg bet$752
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $193 $105 −$88 (-46%)
Will Natus Vincere Make a Roster Change before September? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 51¢ 1¢ $1,273 $34 −$1,239 (-97%)
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Yes 37¢ 10¢ $65 $18 −$47 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 25 $7,252 +$534 +7%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $142 +$619 +435%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Jun 12 $2,000 +$83 +4%
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Jun 08 $21 +$23 +111%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $112 +$288 +256%
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by April 30? Jun 01 $90 +$23 +26%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30? Jun 01 $115 +$5 +5%
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by April 30? Jun 01 $142 +$35 +25%
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by April 30? Jun 01 $1,366 +$100 +7%
Will Russia enter Khatnie by April 30, 2026? Jun 01 $878 +$48 +5%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $2,052 +$1,358 +66%
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by April 30? Apr 21 $3,488 +$170 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30? Apr 20 $487 +$13 +3%
Will Russia enter Stinky by April 30? Apr 15 $143 +$7 +5%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by April 30? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia enter Borova by April 30? Apr 13 $48 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30? Apr 06 $2 +$1 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 2? Apr 04 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C or higher on April 2? Apr 02 $71 +$4 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by March 31? Apr 01 $777 +$59 +8%
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by March 31? Apr 01 $909 +$194 +21%
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $2,616 +$501 +19%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31? Apr 01 $1,007 +$1,541 +153%
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Will Russia enter Khatnie by March 31, 2026? Mar 25 $1,497 +$331 +22%
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by March 31? Mar 19 $1,035 +$70 +7%
Will Russia enter Khatnie by February 28, 2026? Mar 02 $1,144 +$120 +10%
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by February 28, 2026? Feb 09 $62 +$8 +12%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31? Feb 07 $12,221 −$11,731 -96%
Maduro out in 2025? Feb 07 $174 +$26 +15%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? Feb 07 $1,521 +$373 +24%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 15? Dec 31 $1,552 +$1,148 +74%
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31? Dec 22 $334 −$280 -84%
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 22? Dec 22 $3,720 −$391 -10%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? Dec 08 $174 +$7 +4%
Andrii Yermak arrested by November 30? Dec 02 $54 +$6 +11%
Will Russia recapture territory in Kucheriv Yar by November 30? Dec 02 $42 +$26 +61%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by November 30? Dec 02 $5,380 +$1,793 +33%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by November 30? Dec 02 $500 +$47 +10%
Will Russia recapture territory in Vilne by November 30? Dec 02 $433 +$246 +57%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrested by December 31? Dec 01 $102 +$12 +11%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy in jail by December 31? Dec 01 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture Velykomykhailivka by November 30? Nov 28 $809 +$121 +15%
Will Trump release a new Russia x Ukraine peace plan by November 30? Nov 28 $2,078 +$414 +20%
Will Russia capture Ivanopillya by November 30? Nov 22 $1,548 −$315 -20%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21? Nov 22 $186 +$14 +8%
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? Nov 18 $3,270 +$243 +7%
Will Russia enter Siversk by November 30? Nov 17 $460 +$91 +20%
Will Team Falcons win the 2025 Blast Premier Rivals Season 2 Tournamen Nov 16 $13 −$13 -100%
UFC 322: Vieira vs. Nickal (Middleweight, Prelims) Nov 16 $17 +$8 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Natus Vincere Make a Roster Change before September? BUY Yes 69¢ $56 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $4,334 4h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $1 4h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $1 5h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $200 5h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $1 5h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $1 5h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $1 5h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $1 6h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $24 6h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $72 6h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $30 6h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $1 6h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $64 6h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $1 6h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $1 6h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $8 6h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $1 6h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $4 7h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $14 7h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $6 7h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $2 7h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $4 7h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $20 7h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $10 7h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $2 7h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $6 13h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $56 13h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $10 13h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $10 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.49 · official $212.49 (match) · 1373 history records