trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | -15.8% | -23.9% | 67% | 33% | -10.7% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -34.1% | -40.4% | 50% | 43% | -26.7% |
| all | 27 | -30.6% | -37.3% | 44% | 41% | -22.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -37.3% | 41% | -22.6% |
| 10% | -43.3% | 30% | -30.0% |
| 15% | -48.7% | 30% | -36.8% |
| 20% | -53.8% | 15% | -43.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | $25 | $25 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 5¢ | 1¢ | $8 | $2 | −$6 (-75%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | Jun 12 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 08 | $55 | +$4 | +8% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | Jun 01 | $24 | +$11 | +45% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | May 27 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | May 16 | $22 | +$4 | +18% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? | May 08 | $17 | +$3 | +19% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026? | Apr 23 | $25 | +$4 | +15% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Apr 21 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | Apr 16 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 5, 2026? | Apr 14 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Maple Leafs vs. Islanders | Apr 14 | $12 | +$5 | +43% |
| Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Apr 09 | $19 | −$19 | -100% |
| Celtics vs. Hornets | Apr 03 | $24 | −$24 | -100% |
| Will Solana reach $100 in March? | Apr 03 | $29 | +$22 | +75% |
| 76ers vs. Cavaliers | Mar 29 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Rockets vs. Wizards | Mar 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | Mar 29 | $18 | −$18 | -100% |
| Nets vs. Kings | Mar 29 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Nuggets vs. Knicks | Mar 29 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Hornets | Mar 29 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| 76ers vs. Suns | Mar 29 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | Mar 29 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | Mar 22 | $15 | +$19 | +122% |
| Spurs vs. Raptors | Mar 02 | $17 | +$6 | +37% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | Mar 02 | $25 | +$10 | +39% |
| Kings vs. Grizzlies | Feb 25 | $6 | +$10 | +170% |
| Jazz vs. Grizzlies | Feb 23 | $37 | +$31 | +82% |