Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:31:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D1 0xd110…ed30 sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,642 (+22%) realized +$1,643 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%23W / 19L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,640
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +75.4% +58.7% 100% 100% +63.8%
≤30d 4 +27.0% +14.9% 75% 75% -4.7%
≤90d 6 -15.4% -23.4% 50% 50% -34.8%
all 42 -0.8% -10.3% 55% 52% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 52% +10.6%
10% -18.9% 52% -0.0%
15% -26.7% 50% -9.7%
20% -33.9% 45% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% too few recent
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$168 vs −$117 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$1,643
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses23 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage302d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Boston Red Sox 62¢ 60¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 24 $20 +$25 +124%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $16 +$4 +27%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $37 −$37 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $21 +$12 +57%
Penguins vs. Blues Apr 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Bruins vs. Canadiens Mar 18 $140 −$140 -100%
Utah vs. Stars Mar 17 $58 +$83 +144%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Mar 16 $45 +$20 +45%
Golden Knights vs. Kings Feb 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Sabres vs. Maple Leafs Feb 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Jan 27 $321 +$158 +49%
Devils vs. Canucks Jan 26 $169 +$117 +70%
Senators vs. Predators Jan 23 $100 +$104 +104%
Flyers vs. Penguins Jan 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Kings Jan 15 $537 +$496 +92%
Cavaliers vs. 76ers Jan 15 $282 −$282 -100%
Canadiens vs. Capitals Jan 14 $491 +$356 +72%
Flames vs. Blue Jackets Jan 14 $76 −$76 -100%
Kraken vs. Rangers Jan 13 $263 +$321 +122%
Kings vs. Jets Jan 12 $123 +$139 +113%
Sabres vs. Rangers Jan 09 $65 +$55 +85%
Senators vs. Utah Jan 08 $239 +$204 +85%
Raptors vs. Hornets Jan 08 $459 +$391 +85%
Devils vs. Islanders Jan 07 $300 +$312 +104%
Knicks vs. Pistons Jan 06 $209 −$209 -100%
Ducks vs. Capitals Jan 06 $250 −$250 -100%
Wild vs. Kings Jan 06 $555 +$6 +1%
Rangers vs. Capitals Jan 05 $300 +$208 +70%
Flyers vs. Canucks Dec 31 $443 +$363 +82%
Rangers vs. Hurricanes Dec 30 $279 +$164 +59%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Dec 29 $146 +$124 +85%
Sharks vs. Flyers Dec 10 $214 −$214 -100%
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Dec 09 $102 +$111 +108%
Navy vs. Memphis Nov 28 $135 −$135 -100%
Kraken vs. Red Wings Nov 19 $95 −$95 -100%
Padres vs. Cubs Oct 03 $63 −$63 -100%
Red Sox vs. Yankees Oct 03 $133 −$133 -100%
Tigers vs. Guardians Oct 02 $108 +$89 +82%
Pirates vs. Cardinals Aug 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Braves vs. Marlins Aug 27 $172 −$172 -100%
Red Sox vs. Orioles Aug 27 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Boston Red Sox 62¢ $46 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $20 27h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Senegal 78¢ $16 2d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 42¢ $37 28d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 63¢ $21 29d
Penguins vs. Blues BUY Penguins 45¢ $35 71d
Heat vs. Cavaliers BUY Heat 36¢ $9 89d
Bruins vs. Canadiens BUY Bruins 41¢ $140 99d
Utah vs. Stars BUY Utah 41¢ $58 100d
Timberwolves vs. Warriors BUY Timberwolves 69¢ $45 103d
Golden Knights vs. Kings BUY Kings 57¢ $30 119d
Sabres vs. Maple Leafs BUY Maple Leafs 52¢ $50 148d
Magic vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 67¢ $321 149d
Devils vs. Canucks BUY Devils 59¢ $169 152d
Senators vs. Predators BUY Predators 49¢ $100 153d
Flyers vs. Penguins BUY Flyers 41¢ $75 160d
Cavaliers vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 51¢ $282 161d
Golden Knights vs. Kings BUY Golden Knights 52¢ $537 161d
Flames vs. Blue Jackets BUY Flames 43¢ $76 162d
Canadiens vs. Capitals BUY Capitals 58¢ $491 162d
Kraken vs. Rangers BUY Kraken 45¢ $263 163d
Kings vs. Jets BUY Jets 47¢ $123 166d
Sabres vs. Rangers BUY Sabres 54¢ $65 167d
Raptors vs. Hornets BUY Raptors 54¢ $459 168d
Senators vs. Utah BUY Utah 54¢ $239 168d
Devils vs. Islanders BUY Islanders 49¢ $300 168d
Wild vs. Kings BUY Wild 54¢ $280 169d
Ducks vs. Capitals BUY Ducks 45¢ $250 169d
Knicks vs. Pistons BUY Knicks 58¢ $209 170d
Wild vs. Kings BUY Kings 49¢ $275 170d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.91 · official $43.91 (match) · 89 history records