Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:44:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D1 0xd110…d525 crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$16 (+3%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate86%12W / 2L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$11
other 34% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +3.1% -6.8% 86% 0% -6.9%
≤30d 14 +3.1% -6.8% 86% 0% -6.9%
≤90d 14 +3.1% -6.8% 86% 0% -6.9%
all 14 +3.1% -6.8% 86% 0% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 0% -6.9%
10% -15.7% 0% -15.8%
15% -23.8% 0% -24.0%
20% -31.3% 0% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×57.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×347.76 per $1 lost it wins $347.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses12 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $53 +$1 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $48 +$3 +7%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $45 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 27 $42 +$3 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 27 $44 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $42 +$2 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 27 $41 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $41 $0 -0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 27 $38 +$2 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 27 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 27 $38 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records