Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:05:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd10f…dc74 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$94 (-14%) realized −$93 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$100
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$130
crypto 15% +$69
sports 6% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-48.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -21.3% -28.8% 50% 50% -10.4%
≤30d 8 -42.9% -48.3% 38% 38% -25.7%
≤90d 8 -42.9% -48.3% 38% 38% -25.7%
all 8 -42.9% -48.3% 38% 38% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.3% 38% -25.7%
10% -53.2% 38% -32.8%
15% -57.8% 38% -39.3%
20% -61.9% 12% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$51 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage11d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$46 +46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$69 +69%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $100 −$98 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$42 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 43h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 43h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $100 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $22 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $100 9d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.35 · official $97.35 (match) · 12 history records