Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:18:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd10c…8f6c other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-3%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate21%7W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$13
other 26% +$6
sports 14% −$17
politics 5% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.8% -13.0% 50% 0% -13.0%
≤30d 10 -3.0% -12.3% 50% 0% -12.0%
≤90d 11 -3.5% -12.7% 45% 0% -12.1%
all 33 -0.5% -10.0% 21% 3% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 3% -12.2%
10% -18.6% 3% -20.6%
15% -26.4% 3% -28.2%
20% -33.6% 3% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses7 / 26
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage266d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 83¢ 83¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $57 −$7 -12%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $15 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $66 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $34 −$7 -20%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $59 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $59 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $56 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $6 $0 -9%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $4 +$6 +127%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $32 $0 +0%
Clippers vs. Hornets Nov 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $58 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $10 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 23 $2 $0 -3%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 05 $25 $0 -1%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $25 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $34 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $14 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $50 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $57 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $15 26h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $41 32h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $12 35h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $30 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $18 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $33 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $51 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 16¢ $28 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $34 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $58 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $58 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $44 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.29 · official $34.03 (match) · 134 history records