trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Philippines win on 2026-06-03? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | $24 | $26 | +$2 (+7%) |
| Exact Score: Shelbourne FC 1 - 0 Shamrock Rovers? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | $17 | $17 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+4%) |
| Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? | No | 93¢ | 96¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+4%) |
| Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? | No | 96¢ | 92¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Philippines win on 2026-06-03? | Jun 03 | $24 | +$2 | +7% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 22? | Jun 02 | $16 | +$1 | +9% |
| Levante UD vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 4.5 | May 22 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026? | Mar 24 | $1,088 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? | Mar 24 | $39 | −$2 | -5% |
| Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? | Mar 23 | $1,993 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 | Mar 23 | $888 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on | Mar 23 | $110 | −$2 | -2% |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? | Mar 23 | $968 | +$3 | +0% |
| Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? | Mar 23 | $983 | +$6 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in March 2026? | Mar 23 | $80 | +$3 | +3% |
| Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | Mar 23 | $1,168 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first r | Mar 23 | $1,068 | +$3 | +0% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee | Mar 23 | $1,027 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? | Mar 23 | $56 | −$4 | -7% |
| Spread: TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf (-2.5) | Mar 23 | $14 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | Mar 23 | $102 | −$12 | -11% |
| Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? | Mar 23 | $71 | −$3 | -4% |
| Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Mar 23 | $989 | +$4 | +0% |
| Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? | Mar 23 | $46 | −$2 | -4% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? | Mar 23 | $1,002 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in April 2026? | Mar 23 | $73 | −$3 | -4% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1760-1839 tweets in April 2026? | Mar 23 | $1,063 | −$1 | -0% |
| FC Hermannstadt vs. FC Botoşani: O/U 4.5 | Mar 23 | $15 | +$1 | +5% |
| Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-1.5) | Mar 23 | $18 | +$1 | +6% |
| Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 1 - 1 West Ham United FC? | Mar 23 | $332 | −$332 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | -27.9% | -34.8% | 67% | 0% | -27.2% |
| ≤90d | 26 | -7.6% | -16.4% | 54% | 0% | -11.9% |
| all | 26 | -7.6% | -16.4% | 54% | 0% | -11.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.4% | 0% | -11.9% |
| 10% | -24.4% | 0% | -20.3% |
| 15% | -31.7% | 0% | -28.0% |
| 20% | -38.4% | 0% | -35.1% |