Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:10:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D1
0xd105…7b2c
sports · 52 markets active 1h ago
8.0score
+$99,484 +67%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$61,943 · open +$37,541
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$74,669
Realized+$61,943
Unrealized+$37,541
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses22 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$2,011
Open positions4
Markets (closed)48 / 52
History coverage634d
Avg bet$2,843
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 4 History 48 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,723
7 days+$29,079
14 days+$35,746
30 days+$61,462
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 29¢ 81¢ $20,514 $58,434 +$37,920 (+185%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $15,000 $15,044 +$44 (+0%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $1,111 $1,083 −$28 (-2%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $502 $108 −$395 (-79%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Spurs 38¢ 0¢ $2,445 $0 −$2,445 (-100%)
Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 55¢ 0¢ $2,500 $0 −$2,500 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8,026 +$8,783 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,318 −$60 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,009 +$440 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $23,963 +$19,025 +79%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $781 +$890 +114%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 06 $2,534 −$2,500 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2,532 +$4,771 +188%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2,548 +$4,396 +172%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $2,491 −$2,445 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $2,493 +$2,047 +82%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $3,502 +$3,258 +93%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $2,991 +$3,408 +114%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 May 23 $2,999 +$1,590 +53%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $4,602 +$2,006 +44%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5 May 21 $2,495 +$2,110 +85%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 May 20 $2,432 +$1,867 +77%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $2,465 +$4,964 +201%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $513 −$513 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $2,495 +$4,117 +165%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $488 −$488 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $2,501 +$3,796 +152%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $2,429 +$3,184 +131%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 12 $4,742 −$4,742 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $1,537 −$1,537 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 12 $2,482 −$1,350 -54%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 12 $888 −$888 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 12 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 12 $750 −$750 -100%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 12 $996 −$996 -100%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 12 $750 −$750 -100%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 12 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 12 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Jacob Bridgeman win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? May 12 $250 −$250 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? May 12 $999 −$999 -100%
Will there be less than 4 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? May 12 $100 −$100 -100%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels May 12 $1,018 −$1,018 -100%
Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale? May 12 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 12 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale? May 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $2,412 +$1,536 +64%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $918 +$1,651 +180%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $1,153 +$4,770 +414%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $1,024 +$3,602 +352%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $2,397 +$5,036 +210%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 08 $4,975 −$979 -20%
Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Feb 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 80% +$103,718
other 19% −$2,834
economics 1% −$999
politics 0% −$401
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $5,094 43m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $1,019 51m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $406 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $7,619 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $1,258 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,318 29h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $1,138 30h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1,019 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $3,058 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2,548 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,009 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2,548 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $3,990 2d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $19,972 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Francisco Giants 46¢ $781 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $2,534 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $2,532 9d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 9¢ $471 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2,548 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 28¢ $352 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 28¢ $10,004 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 29¢ $10,567 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 38¢ $2,491 18d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers SELL Knicks 100¢ $4,541 18d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 54¢ $2,493 19d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) SELL Spurs 100¢ $6,760 19d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $3,502 20d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 46¢ $2,991 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +68.4% +52.3% 80% 80% +65.4%
≤30d 21 +65.1% +49.4% 76% 76% +64.5%
≤90d 47 +18.0% +6.7% 47% 47% +41.5%
all 48 +15.5% +4.5% 46% 46% +41.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.5% 46% +41.5%
10% ← realistic here -5.5% 46% +28.0%
15% -14.6% 46% +15.6%
20% -23.0% 42% +4.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74,668.84 · official $74,668.84 (match) · 114 history records