Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:37:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd104…3501 other 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$43 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate7%7W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$12
politics 32% −$10
sports 11% −$23
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 80 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 106 -5.8% -14.7% 7% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 3% -9.7%
10% -22.9% 2% -18.3%
15% -30.3% 1% -26.2%
20% -37.2% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses7 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)106 / 106
History coverage124d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 106 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $386 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $192 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $236 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $212 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $362 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $18 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $159 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $146 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $149 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $174 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $204 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $204 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $179 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $153 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $149 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $154 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $218 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $169 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $391 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $430 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $187 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $214 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $211 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 09 $213 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $222 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $348 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $191 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $206 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $690 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $162 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $401 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $166 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $170 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $189 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $213 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $220 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 2h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 3h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 4d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 7d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 9d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 9d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 9d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 9d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $35 10d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $35 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $22 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $22 12d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 12d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 13d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $159 21d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $159 22d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $214 22d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $214 23d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $153 23d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $153 24d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $180 24d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $180 24d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $146 24d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $146 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 327 history records