Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:13:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd104…7c02 other 847 markets active 0h ago coverage 494d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$169 (+0%) realized +$731 · open −$562
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%411W / 400L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$1,233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days−$768
14 days−$892
30 days−$935
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$2,260
crypto 23% −$1,607
world 16% −$411
sports 11% −$479
finance 1% +$291
politics 1% −$297
tech 1% +$44
culture 0% −$60
economics 0% −$80
weather 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +1.2% -8.5% 45% 45% -35.9%
≤30d 137 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 47% -18.6%
≤90d 359 -0.7% -10.1% 54% 50% -11.5%
all 811 -0.8% -10.2% 51% 48% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 48% -9.1%
10% -18.8% 43% -17.8%
15% -26.7% 36% -25.7%
20% -33.9% 28% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$65 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

494d coverage
Net worth$1,233
Realized+$731
Unrealized−$562
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses411 / 400
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions36
Markets (closed)811 / 847
History coverage494d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 811 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 60¢ 70¢ $107 $125 +$18 (+16%)
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? No 47¢ 58¢ $100 $124 +$24 (+24%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 43¢ 61¢ $75 $107 +$32 (+42%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $70 $75 +$5 (+7%)
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? Yes 51¢ 54¢ $69 $73 +$3 (+5%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 34¢ 55¢ $40 $64 +$24 (+60%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $55 $60 +$5 (+9%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 52¢ 62¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Over $400M raised on Coinbase in 2026? No 56¢ 51¢ $59 $54 −$5 (-9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $60 $52 −$8 (-14%)
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 42¢ 26¢ $75 $46 −$29 (-39%)
Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 47¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 24¢ 12¢ $70 $33 −$37 (-53%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-7%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 62¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+50%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-11%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+3%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 12¢ 13¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 19¢ 32¢ $9 $16 +$7 (+71%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 20¢ 12¢ $25 $15 −$10 (-40%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch? Yes 44¢ 26¢ $25 $15 −$10 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$10 +63%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo Jun 17 $15 +$44 +295%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $50 +$13 +27%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$11 +74%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 16 $45 +$21 +46%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Discord IPO before 2027? Jun 16 $45 −$3 -7%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $15 +$12 +78%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$11 -91%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$13 +83%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$21 +138%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 15 $31 +$32 +101%
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? Jun 14 $75 −$2 -3%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $17 +$34 +197%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $110 −$110 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $26 +$16 +62%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $275 −$157 -57%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $160 −$129 -81%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $15 +$19 +126%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $9 +$45 +480%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $192 −$112 -58%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $66 −$4 -7%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $86 −$76 -89%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$21 +101%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $12 +$12 +97%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $45 +$17 +37%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $20 −$7 -37%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 13 $62 +$16 +27%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $46 −$6 -14%
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Jun 11 $41 −$10 -25%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 11 $350 +$57 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $25 +$10 +38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $279 −$228 -82%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $45 +$28 +63%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 11 $61 +$34 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 44¢ $10 11m
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 57¢ $30 12m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 88¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $17 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 53¢ $15 1h
o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY Yes 44¢ $26 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $17 3h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo SELL No 48¢ $7 3h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo SELL No 56¢ $3 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 57¢ $35 4h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo SELL No 56¢ $1 4h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo SELL No 57¢ $34 4h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 38¢ $11 4h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo SELL No 40¢ $0 4h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo SELL No 40¢ $12 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 84¢ $134 5h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo SELL No 40¢ $2 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 69¢ $21 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 58¢ $12 7h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 19¢ $15 8h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo BUY No 13¢ $15 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No 4¢ $5 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 21¢ $15 8h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 8h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 85¢ $63 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 48¢ $25 10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,232.54 · official $1,225.61 (match) · 2617 history records