Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:40:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D1 0xd100…853d sports 864 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (128 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32,132 (+93%) realized +$32,110 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%422W / 413L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day127.8pace
Fees−$424est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$435
other 16% +$1,462
world 0% −$39
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (128 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 428 -3.2% -12.4% 52% 50% +15.5%
≤30d 835 -5.0% -14.1% 51% 49% -6.9%
≤90d 835 -5.0% -14.1% 51% 49% -6.9%
all 835 -5.0% -14.1% 51% 49% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover127.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 49% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 44% -15.8%
15% -29.8% 33% -23.9%
20% -36.7% 27% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$29 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$1,141
Realized+$32,110
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses422 / 413
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$424
Open positions32
Markets (closed)835 / 864
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day127.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 835 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Aryna Sabalenka 54¢ 22¢ $564 $224 −$340 (-60%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jessica Pegula 46¢ 78¢ $126 $216 +$89 (+71%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Alexander Zverev 56¢ 76¢ $133 $179 +$46 (+35%)
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu Alina Charaeva 62¢ 74¢ $112 $132 +$21 (+19%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Lanlana Tararudee vs Veronika Erjavec Lanlana Tararudee 66¢ 72¢ $109 $119 +$10 (+9%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Aleksandar Vukic Harry Wendelken 49¢ 26¢ $189 $102 −$87 (-46%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 43¢ 44¢ $26 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? No 80¢ 80¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic Viktorija Golubic 38¢ 14¢ $45 $17 −$28 (-62%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Under 75¢ 74¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 40¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 39¢ 36¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 3.5 Under 79¢ 100¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Under 40¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 36¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 60¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-33%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+71%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Sweden 68¢ 68¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 75¢ 78¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Ajla Tomljanovi Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $534 +$23 +4%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Ella Seidel Jun 20 $188 +$41 +22%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc Jun 20 $348 +$142 +41%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Antoine Ghibaudo vs Petr Bar Bi Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $48 −$34 -70%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +34%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $2 $0 +24%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $221 +$180 +82%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 +$1 +29%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $116 −$49 -42%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,046 +$1,416 +135%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $11 +$6 +52%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $40 +$33 +83%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $65 −$65 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $162 +$106 +66%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $27 −$6 -20%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $87 −$63 -73%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $43 −$16 -38%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5 Jun 20 $3 +$1 +29%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $24 +$8 +35%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $42 +$59 +140%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $44 +$14 +32%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 20 $89 −$89 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $35 +$15 +44%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3 +$2 +83%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $101 +$50 +49%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 20 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 +$2 +20%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $29 +$9 +32%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $139 +$15 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $87 +$18 +21%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 -3%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $3 +$1 +31%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $16 +$1 +4%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $69 +$37 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Under 75¢ $4 6m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1 6m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Under 75¢ $4 6m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Under 75¢ $6 6m
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 62¢ $6 16m
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 60¢ $2 19m
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 78¢ $1 22m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1 27m
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Viktorija Golubic 38¢ $46 27m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $2 59m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $3 59m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Aleksandar Vu BUY Harry Wendelken 49¢ $131 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Aleksandar Vu BUY Harry Wendelken 49¢ $61 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $4 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $4 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $2 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $2 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu BUY Alina Charaeva 62¢ $113 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Alastair Gray 31¢ $29 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 57¢ $29 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 56¢ $32 2h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova BUY Marie Bouzkova 78¢ $359 2h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 44¢ $122 2h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 56¢ $1 2h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Ella Seidel BUY Solana Sierra 79¢ $182 2h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova BUY Karolina Pliskova 27¢ $2 2h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 46¢ $129 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,140.73 · official $1,140.74 (match) · 3500 history records