Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D0 0xd0fc…ecf5 crypto 1675 markets active 1d ago coverage 113d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 113d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate93%1556W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$5
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
other 0% $0
sports 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 274 +1.5% -8.1% 91% 35% -7.9%
≤30d 338 +0.0% -9.5% 90% 33% -9.3%
≤90d 1174 +0.2% -9.3% 94% 10% -9.2%
all 1674 +0.2% -9.3% 93% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 7% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1556 / 118
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1674 / 1675
History coverage113d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1674 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $1 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 90¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.52 · official $6.52 (match) · 3500 history records