Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:25:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

D0 0xd0f8…64e7 crypto 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$236 (+186%) realized +$236 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +256% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +222% what you keep after slip

Net edge+222%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown7%max

Avg bet$32per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 59d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+222.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+612.2%	+544.4%	100%	100%	+212.8%
≤30d	2	+612.2%	+544.4%	100%	100%	+212.8%
≤90d	4	+256.1%	+222.2%	50%	50%	+168.2%
all	4	+256.1%	+222.2%	50%	50%	+168.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+222.2%	50%	+168.2%
10%	+191.3%	50%	+142.5%
15%	+163.2%	50%	+119.1%
20%	+137.4%	50%	+97.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +196% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +256% · $-wt +196% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$133 vs −$9 · ×14.77 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×14.77 per $1 lost it wins $14.77

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$236

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage59d

Avg bet$32

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown7%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$15	+$164	+1115%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$94	+$102	+109%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Apr 19	$10	−$9	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3PM ET	Apr 19	$9	−$9	-93%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$178	1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$15	3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$196	23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	47¢	$94	24h
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	BUY Up	69¢	$10	59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$9	59d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 6 history records