Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:08:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D0 0xd0f8…1546 sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 544d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,889 (+26%) realized +$3,892 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate65%15W / 8L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$634per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$56
14 days+$56
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$3,894
other 1% −$62
crypto 1% +$23
tech 0% +$23
politics 0% +$33
world 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +188.3% +160.8% 100% 100% +160.8%
≤30d 1 +188.3% +160.8% 100% 100% +160.8%
≤90d 2 +44.1% +30.4% 50% 50% +25.3%
all 23 +25.3% +13.3% 65% 61% +13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.3% 61% +13.7%
10% +2.5% 61% +2.8%
15% -7.4% 57% -7.1%
20% -16.5% 48% -16.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 96% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% too few recent
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$607 vs −$653 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

544d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$3,892
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses15 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage544d
Avg bet$634
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 37¢ 36¢ $64 $61 −$3 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Warriors vs. Clippers Jun 21 $30 +$56 +188%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $33 −$32 -98%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Mar 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Feb 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Feb 10 $18 +$2 +9%
Ravens vs. Steelers Feb 10 $10 +$17 +170%
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025? Feb 10 $29 +$21 +72%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Feb 10 $33 +$23 +70%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Feb 10 $39 +$23 +59%
Kings vs. Pacers Dec 08 $3,510 −$3,510 -100%
Knicks vs. Heat Nov 18 $5,022 +$4,278 +85%
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? Nov 17 $37 +$33 +89%
Canucks vs. Penguins Oct 22 $4,450 +$4,450 +100%
Texans vs. Ravens Oct 06 $86 +$74 +85%
Patriots vs. Bills Oct 05 $1,504 −$1,504 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in September? Sep 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Aug 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Pelicans vs. Lakers Apr 30 $33 +$11 +33%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 30 $39 +$17 +43%
Mavericks vs. Warriors Mar 05 $42 +$16 +37%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Jan 13 $22 +$45 +203%
Lakers vs. Warriors Jan 13 $34 +$46 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 37¢ $65 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $33 37d
Warriors vs. Clippers BUY Warriors 34¢ $10 66d
Warriors vs. Clippers BUY Warriors 34¢ $19 66d
Pelicans vs. Rockets BUY Pelicans 30¢ $36 99d
Spurs vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 29¢ $14 131d
Ravens vs. Steelers BUY Steelers 37¢ $10 171d
Kings vs. Pacers BUY Kings 39¢ $3,510 195d
Knicks vs. Heat BUY Heat 54¢ $4,325 215d
Knicks vs. Heat BUY Heat 54¢ $15 215d
Knicks vs. Heat BUY Heat 54¢ $22 215d
Knicks vs. Heat BUY Heat 54¢ $54 215d
Knicks vs. Heat BUY Heat 54¢ $540 215d
Knicks vs. Heat BUY Heat 54¢ $12 215d
Knicks vs. Heat BUY Heat 54¢ $1 215d
Knicks vs. Heat BUY Heat 54¢ $27 215d
Knicks vs. Heat BUY Heat 54¢ $1 215d
Knicks vs. Heat BUY Heat 54¢ $3 215d
Knicks vs. Heat BUY Heat 54¢ $5 215d
Knicks vs. Heat BUY Heat 54¢ $2 215d
Knicks vs. Heat BUY Heat 54¢ $15 215d
Canucks vs. Penguins BUY Penguins 50¢ $48 242d
Canucks vs. Penguins BUY Penguins 50¢ $12 242d
Canucks vs. Penguins BUY Penguins 50¢ $12 242d
Canucks vs. Penguins BUY Penguins 50¢ $12 242d
Canucks vs. Penguins BUY Penguins 50¢ $12 242d
Canucks vs. Penguins BUY Penguins 50¢ $4,352 242d
Texans vs. Ravens BUY Texans 54¢ $86 259d
Patriots vs. Bills BUY Bills 80¢ $1,504 259d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 83¢ $51 279d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.41 · official $61.41 (match) · 60 history records