Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D0 0xd0f7…9380 crypto 185 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$303 (+5%) realized +$303 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate85%157W / 28L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days−$86
14 days+$246
30 days+$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$300
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -14.9% -23.0% 65% 65% -17.2%
≤30d 151 +7.6% -2.6% 85% 85% -3.2%
≤90d 185 +7.7% -2.5% 85% 83% -4.6%
all 185 +7.7% -2.5% 85% 83% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 83% -4.6%
10% -11.9% 44% -13.7%
15% -20.4% 11% -22.1%
20% -28.2% 5% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$31 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$303
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses157 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)185 / 185
History coverage72d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 185 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$8 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $69 +$54 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$4 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $65 +$11 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $70 +$27 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $130 −$58 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $73 +$14 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $43 +$10 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $63 +$26 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $45 −$44 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $43 +$7 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $37 +$6 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$7 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $66 +$22 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $29 +$5 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $35 +$10 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$5 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $43 +$8 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $36 +$8 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $11 +$3 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $24 +$4 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 09 $35 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 07 $39 +$8 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $56 +$16 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $54 +$10 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $48 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 07 $56 +$17 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 07 $21 +$8 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 07 $34 +$8 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 06 $38 +$9 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 06 $44 +$10 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 06 $47 +$13 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 06 $6 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 06 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 06 $41 +$6 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 06 $48 +$14 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 06 $51 +$10 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $41 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $69 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $27 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $65 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $70 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $70 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $73 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $43 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $63 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $45 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $15 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $21 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $43 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $37 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $31 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $66 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $29 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $35 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $43 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $36 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $11 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $24 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $35 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 392 history records