Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:59:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D0 0xd0eb…9b18 weather 226 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$92 (+4%) realized +$132 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate67%141W / 71L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$105
14 days+$90
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 92% +$62
crypto 8% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +15.3% +4.3% 83% 75% +2.4%
≤30d 155 +5.1% -5.0% 75% 69% -6.8%
≤90d 185 +2.2% -7.5% 70% 64% -5.9%
all 212 +1.9% -7.8% 67% 60% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 60% -5.6%
10% -16.6% 44% -14.6%
15% -24.7% 31% -22.9%
20% -32.1% 19% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$132
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses141 / 71
Open positions14
Markets (closed)212 / 226
History coverage103d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? No 78¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? No 81¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? No 83¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? No 90¢ 97¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 15? No 89¢ 95¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? No 70¢ 73¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 63¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? No 84¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 15? No 59¢ 56¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? No 79¢ 7¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? No 55¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? No 64¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? No 65¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? No 89¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $10 +$9 +89%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $10 +$4 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$8 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 14 $10 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 14 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $20 +$7 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$4 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 13 $5 +$5 +94%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 13 $10 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 12 $10 +$3 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$9 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$10 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$6 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$3 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$5 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$8 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$3 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$5 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 89¢ $10 52m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 63¢ $10 52m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 59¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL No 100¢ $19 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? BUY No 79¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 55¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $14 12h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 14¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL No 0¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 13h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $18 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 81¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 78¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 65¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 83¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $12 20h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $8 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $13 23h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $13 23h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $8 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $11 24h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $14 24h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 73¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 52¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.54 · official $98.86 (match) · 624 history records